NHL prediction model track record: favourites won 59.2% since 2015–16
Favourites won 59.2% of 13,512 past games, each forecast using only earlier seasons. This season the favourite is 135–96.
Summary
| Favourite won, 2015–26 | 59.2% of 13,512 games |
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| Log loss, 2015–26 | 0.668 (a coin flip scores .693) |
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| Favourite record this season | 135–96 |
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| Log loss this season | 0.659 on 231 games |
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How often favourites win
| Forecast | Range | Games | Favourite won |
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| Toss-up | 50%–55% | 4,339 | 53.3% |
| Slight edge | 55%–60% | 3,847 | 56.9% |
| Lean | 60%–65% | 2,655 | 62.6% |
| Strong | 65%–100% | 2,671 | 68.8% |