About PuckDelta
PuckDelta forecasts every NHL game, simulates the rest of the season and rates every skater and goalie, from official NHL data. What is on the site, how a forecast is made and when it updates.
What is on the site
How a forecast is made
- Expected goals: every unblocked shot gets a scoring chance from its location, type and the play before it.
- Team strength: recent goals and shot attempts for and against, adjusted for rest, back-to-backs and home ice. Recent games count most.
- Game result: the chance of a regulation, overtime or shootout result, which gives the win chances.
- Lineups: once the NHL posts the dressed players and starting goalies, a second forecast uses them.
- Season: the remaining schedule is played out many times with official tiebreaks, then the playoff bracket and best-of-seven series.
- Players: each skater is rated on 5-on-5 offence and defence, finishing, power play, penalty kill and penalties, then multiplied by expected minutes.
When it updates
- Each morning: game forecasts, player ratings and a new season simulation.
- Before puck drop: updated forecasts once the NHL posts lineups.
- During games: live score, win chance and shot map.
- After each final: the result, box score, standings odds and stats, within about ten minutes.