Tampa Bay Lightning playoff chances and predictions 2026–27: 75% to make the playoffs
Model prediction: 75% to make the playoffs, 4.2% to win the Stanley Cup, 103 projected points (likely 85–120). 8-3-2 with 18 points in 13 games through Nov 1. Odds from simulated seasons using official NHL data.
| Record | 8-3-2 |
|---|---|
| Points | 18 in 13 games |
| Goal difference | +5 |
| Division | Atlantic (Eastern Conference) |
Season forecast
| Projected points | 103 (likely range 85–120) |
|---|---|
| Make the playoffs | 75% |
| Win the division | 23% |
| Reach the second round | 38% |
| Reach the conference final | 20% |
| Reach the Stanley Cup Final | 8% |
| Win the Stanley Cup | 4.2% |
| Win the Presidents' Trophy | 3.2% |
Next games
| Date | Opponent | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Tue, Nov 3 · 7:00 PM ET | vs Detroit Red Wings | 64% |
| Thu, Nov 5 · 7:00 PM ET | vs Chicago Blackhawks | 75% |
| Sat, Nov 7 · 8:00 PM ET | at Minnesota Wild | 52% |
Recent results
| Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | at Nashville Predators | L 4–5 (SO) |
| Oct 29 | vs Winnipeg Jets | W 6–4 |
| Oct 24 | at Utah Mammoth | L 4–5 (OT) |
| Oct 23 | at Colorado Avalanche | L 3–6 |
| Oct 20 | at Vegas Golden Knights | W 6–2 |
Players
| Player | Position | Projected goals above average |
|---|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov | Right wing | +11.1 |
| Brandon Hagel | Left wing | +10.8 |
| Jake Guentzel | Centre | +6.8 |
| Brayden Point | Centre | +5.5 |
| John Carlson | Defence | +4.3 |
| Anthony Cirelli | Centre | +3.5 |
| Ryan McDonagh | Defence | +2.4 |
| Gage Goncalves | Centre | +1.5 |
| Pontus Holmberg | Right wing | +1.3 |
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous | Defence | +1.2 |
| Ilya Mikheyev | Right wing | +1.1 |
| Victor Hedman | Defence | +0.9 |
| Yanni Gourde | Centre | +0.1 |
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | – | |
| Dennis Hildeby | – | |
| Max Crozier | Defence | −0.5 |
| Dominic James | Centre | −0.6 |
| Jeffrey Viel | Left wing | −0.9 |
| Scott Sabourin | Right wing | −0.9 |
| J.J. Moser | Defence | −1.6 |
| Zemgus Girgensons | Centre | −1.8 |
| Erik Cernak | Defence | −2.3 |
| Conor Geekie | Centre | −2.6 |
| Emil Lilleberg | Defence | −2.9 |
Atlantic Division
| Team | Points | Projected | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Bruins | 21 | 100 | 64% |
| Montréal Canadiens | 20 | 101 | 68% |
| Ottawa Senators | 19 | 101 | 69% |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 18 | 103 | 75% |
| Florida Panthers | 18 | 100 | 64% |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 18 | 83 | 10% |
| Buffalo Sabres | 17 | 95 | 47% |
| Detroit Red Wings | 15 | 94 | 43% |